Semifinal AI Predictions Chaos: Is France Safe? The Fate of England vs Argentina Remains Uncertain

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)

In the previous article about the World Cup quarterfinal predictions, six AIs unanimously favored France, Spain, England, and Argentina to advance. After four matches, all four semifinal tickets were correctly predicted by AI.

France's advancement was the easiest, as Mbappé missed a penalty but later contributed with a goal and an assist, helping France eliminate Morocco 2-0. Spain again pulled off a last-minute victory, with Merino scoring in the 88th minute to defeat Belgium 2-1. The other two matches went into extra time: Bellingham scored twice to help England come back 2-1 against Norway; Argentina, playing with one less man against Switzerland, scored two goals in the final moments of extra time to win 3-1.

Similarly, to more effectively participate in the semifinal prediction market, I asked ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qianwen, and Grok—these six AI models—to predict the outcomes of regular time, scores, and whether the matches would go into extra time or penalty shootouts.

However, in the semifinals, the predictions from the six AIs showed significant divergence. In the match between France and Spain, five AIs favored France to advance, all predicting a score of 2-1; the match between England and Argentina had the most disagreement, with three AIs supporting England and three favoring Argentina, and there was no consensus on whether the match would go into extra time or even a penalty shootout.

Five AIs unanimously predicted France would defeat Spain 2-1, with only Gemini predicting Spain would advance.

The first semifinal of this World Cup is France vs Spain, scheduled for July 15 at 3 AM Beijing time. According to the PPP prediction market tool, the probability of France winning in the "World Cup Semifinal France vs Spain" prediction event is currently reported at 42%; the probability of a draw is 30%; and the probability of Spain winning is 30%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, the probability of France advancing is 60%, while Spain's is 40%.

These are the two most defensively stable teams in this World Cup. France has not conceded a goal since entering the knockout stage, while Spain has only been breached once throughout the tournament. However, the ways in which both teams win are completely different. Spain relies on possession and high pressing to control the pace, while France excels at quick transitions, using the speed and individual skills of their forwards to create threats directly.

Among the six AIs, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen all chose France to advance. Moreover, the score predictions from the five models are all France 2-1 Spain. Although Spain may have more possession, the significant forward push from their full-backs could leave space behind them vulnerable. Facing Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise, France does not need to siege for long; they just need to seize a few counter-attacking opportunities to change the game directly.

ChatGPT's judgment on the match progression is more specific, believing that France will score first through a counterattack, Spain will equalize in the second half, and then continue to press forward, only to be caught out by France's counterattack for a last-minute winner. Claude, while acknowledging the possibility of the match going into extra time, ultimately agrees with Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen, choosing France to win 2-1 in regular time.

The only one choosing Spain is Gemini, predicting a 1-1 draw after 120 minutes, with Spain advancing through a penalty shootout. Gemini's reasoning does not focus on whether Spain can dominate the attack against France, but rather believes that Spain can minimize the number of transitions in the match through sustained possession, thereby reducing the threat of France's counterattacks.

As long as Spain does not concede early, the match has a chance to enter a rhythm they are familiar with. Although France has explosive players like Mbappé and Dembélé, it will be difficult to find open space against Spain's midfield control; and since France has not conceded a goal in the knockout stage, it will also not be easy for Spain to score multiple goals in a positional battle. Therefore, Gemini's analysis suggests that the match may maintain a low score for a long time, with both teams seizing one opportunity each before heading to a penalty shootout.

Thus, whether Gemini can be the only AI to correctly predict Spain's advancement has become another major point of interest in this match. In contrast, the divergence in the other semifinal is much greater—England vs Argentina, where the six AIs could not even reach a consensus on the direction of advancement.

Predictions for England and Argentina are evenly split, with disagreements on whether the match will go into extra time or even a penalty shootout.

The second semifinal of this World Cup is England vs Argentina, scheduled for July 16 at 3 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, in regular time, the probability of England winning is 37%; the probability of a draw is 33%; and the probability of Argentina winning is 32%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, the probability of England advancing is 55%, while Argentina's is 45%.

Compared to France and Spain, this match is harder to judge. Both teams played a full 120 minutes in the last round. England came back against Norway in extra time, while Argentina also defeated Switzerland only in the final moments of extra time. Physical exhaustion, the form of key players, and the pace of the match could all influence the final outcome.

For the predictions from the six AI models, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qianwen support England; ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude favor Argentina.

Those supporting England place more emphasis on physical confrontation, set pieces, and impact. Grok and DeepSeek both predict England will win 2-1 in regular time, while Qianwen gives a more aggressive prediction of 2-0. England's current attack is also highly concentrated on Kane and Bellingham. The two have accounted for the vast majority of the team's goals, with Bellingham stepping up to solve problems in the last two knockout rounds. In the view of these models, England can maintain pressure through high pressing, crosses, and set pieces, aiming to finish the match within 90 minutes.

Supporters of Argentina, on the other hand, believe more in knockout stage experience. Gemini predicts Argentina will advance 2-1 in regular time, believing Messi's playmaking and key abilities are still enough to decide matches of this level; Claude's judgment is more conservative, suggesting that both teams are likely to get caught in a low-scoring tug-of-war, with a significant chance of finishing 1-1 in regular time, and the probability of the match going into extra time is clearly higher than in the first match, ultimately leaning towards Argentina's advancement; ChatGPT predicts the match will go directly to a penalty shootout, believing both teams will finish 1-1 in regular time, and during extra time, neither will dare to press too much, with Argentina eliminating England 4-3 thanks to Emiliano Martínez and their richer penalty shootout experience.

In the previous round, the AIs had a high degree of consensus in their predictions for the semifinals, ultimately getting them all right. Now, in the semifinals, the predictions have turned into a "consensus match" and a "divergence match." Can France break through Spain's possession system, and will England and Argentina battle it out to a penalty shootout? This time, whose predictions are more trustworthy?

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