Under War, Why Did Bitcoin Rise Against the Odds?
Original Article Title: Bitcoin Is Up Since the War Started. Here's What That Actually Tells You.
Original Article Author: Crypto Unfiltered
Translation: Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: As oil prices surge, the stock market is under pressure, and inflation expectations rise again, the market should have entered a typical "risk-off" phase — this did indeed happen in this round of the Iran conflict. Energy prices broke through a key range, global assets generally pulled back, and macro uncertainty rose rapidly (The Guardian). However, in this context, Bitcoin has exhibited a somewhat counterintuitive phenomenon: it has not continued to weaken in line with most risk assets but has instead outperformed stocks, gold, and even silver for a period of time (Investopedia).
This article revolves around a more critical question: What does this "counter-trend performance" actually mean?
From a short-term market reaction perspective, Bitcoin is still expected to fall when the conflict escalates and rebound when easing is anticipated, indicating that it has not yet shed its risk asset properties (Barron's). However, from a longer-term perspective, its relative returns, fund flows, and its relationship with traditional assets are changing — it is no longer just a shadow of tech stocks, nor is it completely subject to a single macro narrative.
The article further points out that the real core variable is not in the "war itself," but in how the war reshapes the global liquidity environment through oil prices, inflation, and rate expectations. This is also the underlying mechanism behind Bitcoin's price volatility. Meanwhile, institutional funds continue to allocate amidst turmoil, gradually shifting the pricing logic of this asset from being "emotion-driven" to "structure-driven."
In this sense, Bitcoin's rise is not an isolated price signal but a visible result of a deeper transformation — an asset undergoing a process of identity reassessment.
While the market is still debating what it is, pricing has often already begun to change.
Below is the original article:
The current global financial landscape is not optimistic. Oil prices are approaching multi-year highs, inflation expectations are rising again, and central banks are beginning to delay their interest rate cut timeline. Stock market sentiment is becoming tense, and geopolitical risk has become the dominant variable for almost all asset classes.
However, since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict at the end of February, Bitcoin has risen by about 7%.
During the same period, the S&P 500 index fell by about 1%, gold retreated by about 3%, and silver fell by almost 9%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin — an asset long criticized as a purely speculative tool, a "risk-on asset," or even an asset "wearing a tech stock disguise" — quietly outperformed all of the above assets.
This data point deserves more attention than currently received.
Price Landscape Stripped of Noise
In early October 2025, Bitcoin once reached a historical high of $126,198. As of this week, its price has been hovering around $69,000, marking a retreat of about 45% from the peak. Looking at this number alone is not optimistic, but when observed within the current conflict cycle, its performance appears different.
The trend is not stable. On April 2, Donald Trump made a speech during prime time, threatening a tough strike against Iran, causing Bitcoin to temporarily fall to $65,834 on the same day, marking a new low since 2026. Ethereum also dropped about 5% on the same day. The initial market reaction was quite direct: an escalation of conflict implies decreased risk appetite, which usually results in a sell-off of crypto assets.
However, the situation began to change afterward. As news of a "potential 45-day ceasefire" emerged, Bitcoin rebounded over 3% within hours, surpassing $69,500 at one point, with a daily trading volume soaring above $29 billion. The market response was rapid and clear.
The signal conveyed by this process is: the current market is now viewing Bitcoin as a "geopolitical thermometer," rather than just a speculative position. This shift in positioning itself is significant.
A Real Identity Crisis, and Why It Breeds Opportunity
Bitcoin is currently in a rather rare phase: it cannot clearly define itself, and the market is equally unable to provide a clear positioning.
On the one hand, it does show characteristics of a "safe-haven asset." In the past cycle, the highly correlated relationship between Bitcoin and tech stocks quickly broke after the conflict erupted, with the current correlation close to zero. It is no longer just an amplified "tech stock alternative."
But on the other hand, Bitcoin still tends to rise on news of "ceasefires" or "relaxation" and fall when conflicts escalate. This is a typical behavior of a risk-on asset—once the political situation worsens, it plunges, making it difficult to simply define it as "digital gold."
A more accurate description is: the current Bitcoin is in a transitional range between two attributes. And it is this uncertainty that creates opportunities for investors who understand its structure.
An Unignorable Macro Headwind
The true short logic is equally clear and worth serious consideration.
Since the outbreak of the conflict, oil prices have risen by about 60%, with Brent Crude briefly rising to over $107 per barrel. This kind of energy shock will directly feed into an already stubborn inflation level and alter the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction path. The market currently almost unanimously expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the April meeting, with limited room for rate cuts in the short term.
This is crucial for Bitcoin because liquidity has always been the core fuel for its rise. The bull market from 2020 to 2021 was essentially built on an extremely loose monetary environment. When funds are abundant and costs are low, Bitcoin tends to perform strongly; however, when central banks tighten policy, or even just "stay put longer than expected," this tailwind disappears.
Digital asset management firm CoinShares pointed out that in late March, digital asset investment products saw outflows for the first time in five weeks, with outflows from Bitcoin products reaching $194 million. The reasons are also very direct: prolonged conflict, rising inflation risks, and a shift in rate expectations.
What investors really need to focus on is not the war itself, but how the war changes the monetary policy path.
What the "Smart Money" Is Doing
Amidst a mix of long and short signals, institutional fund behavior is quite clear.
On April 6, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $471 million, marking the strongest performance since late February and the sixth-largest single-day inflow in 2026. Among them, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has surpassed $54.5 billion in assets under management, accounting for nearly 60% of the entire U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market. So far, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of about $56 billion.
This is not a retail-driven chasing behavior based on sentiment but a rhythmic allocation by institutional funds amid a broader market wait-and-see stance.
One possible interpretation is that large allocators are viewing the $66,000 to $70,000 range as an "accumulation range." In institutional memory, Bitcoin has just experienced a historical high of $126,000. By entering at around $69,000 at this point, the risk-reward structure is fundamentally different from chasing at a high — in this price range, true asymmetry exists.
How to Understand What Will Happen Next
Looking back from the current node, the outcome is not asymmetrical, but it is not unjudgable.
The current probability forecast from the market is as follows: the probability of a ceasefire by the end of April is about 28%, rising to 55% by the end of June, and reaching 76% by the end of the year. This timeline itself has provided key information—the likelihood of a rapid resolution in the short term is low, but some form of resolution within months remains the base case.
If this scenario unfolds, the market's deductive path is relatively clear: oil prices will fall, inflation will cool, rate cut expectations will be rebuilt, liquidity will expand again, and Bitcoin is likely to become the most resilient asset in this environment. The same event that triggered the shock will drive the recovery in reverse, potentially leading to an even stronger rebound.
However, if the conflict spirals into a stagflation trajectory, the situation becomes more complex. Liquidity tightening, continued outflows of funds, and passive deleveraging of leveraged positions in the futures market could further suppress prices. The $50,000 level has been mentioned several times as the next significant support area.
The more honest answer is that no one can be certain how the path will unfold. What investors truly control is the alignment between position size and their own judgment, as well as the holding period.
An Overlooked Key Variable
Beyond the daily war narratives, there is a more structural clue: the U.S. "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve."
When a sitting president proposes incorporating Bitcoin into the national strategic asset reserves, it will change the long-term supply structure. This is not noise but a fundamental shift by the world's largest economy toward this asset class, with clear long-term bullish implications. It is just currently overshadowed by the conflict itself and has not been fully priced in by the market.
As uncertainty gradually dissipates, the importance of this variable will resurface.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is neither a traditional safe haven asset nor a purely risk-on target. A more apt understanding is that it is in a "transitional state"—gradually gaining credibility through real institutional fund allocations on one hand, while still retaining the inherent volatility of an emerging asset on the other.
Conflict has made the landscape appear chaotic, but the underlying signals are not complex: institutions are buying in, the price is far from its peak, and the ultimate outcome of the war will be a significant catalyst for the next phase.
That's how markets have always been—uncertainty is often the source of opportunity.
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