Polymarket Launches Prediction Market for US-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire

Polymarket has launched a prediction market titled "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire?" Currently, the probability of a ceasefire on July 18 is 5%; on July 24 it is 15%; on July 31 it is 23%; on August 14 it is 43%; and on August 31 it is 54%. The market settlement rule is as follows: if the US does not take military action against Iran between the creation of the market and 11:59 PM on the specified end date, the market will settle at "yes"; otherwise, it will settle at "no." The first day of the 14-day period is the calendar date of the most recent qualifying military action, lasting until 12 PM Eastern Time on the 14th day. Qualifying military actions include airstrikes or ground-to-ground missile strikes initiated by the US, specifically involving the use of bombs, air-to-ground missiles, drones, etc. Eligible military actions also include ground-to-air missile strikes, small arms fire, ground invasions, cyber operations, naval gunfire, and more.