Market Prediction Scam "Oracle": 8300x Rug Pull Scheme, the $230K Harvest

By: blockbeats|2026/01/19 17:00:01
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Original Title: "Predicting Market Genuine and Fake Gods of Gamblers: Debunking 8,300x Miracle; Price Manipulation Taking $230K"
Original Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

Being a hot track that has continued to rise since the beginning of the year, the prediction market is not lacking in wealth-building miracles.

However, behind these miracles, whether it is a real wonder achieved through seizing the moment and clever maneuvering, or a fake hype created through manipulation and deception, requires the audience to have a discerning eye. Recently, a trader on Platform X posted claiming to have achieved an "8,300x miracle," betting over $10,000 starting from $12, but was soon exposed for engaging in multi-account fraud and artificial promotion; while another trader, by manipulating the price of XRP, took $230,000 in the "15-Minute Price Prediction" section, pulling off a one-way harvest on the betting bots on Polymarket.

On the stage of betting on the outcome, some want to dance with lies, while others take advantage of loopholes to seize fortunes. In the game of truth and falsehood, there is no undefeated strategy, only flexible tactics.

From $12 to $100,000, an 8,300x Miracle: Polymarket's Calling Card vs. Trader's Fraudulent Scheme

On January 16, the trader ascetic posted, stating that through a "all-in on Bitcoin's short-term volatility," doubling the capital 16 times in a row, finally achieving a milestone achievement of turning $12 into $100,000 in profit. At the same time, they emphasized that during the betting process, they "also specifically shared their betting strategy and the reasons behind it."

Subsequently, they posted their Polymarket account link in the comments and bluntly stated that such a wealth-building miracle can only be staged on Polymarket.

The comments section then saw a "Polymarket community blood-boiling celebration," with countless people congratulating them, even Polymarket's Global Growth Lead LeGate commented, "Congratulations, bro! I think you deserve it! Congratulations on receiving the PolymarketTrade badge!" (This account is an active trader community account on Polymarket)

If you thought this would be a typical "overnight get-rich-quick style show-off tweet," then you may have underestimated the extent of the matter.

Suddenly, the wind of the "8300x Return Miracle on Polymarket" event took a sharp turn.

From Betting Miracle to Fraudulent Scheme: 8300x Return Data Questioned

On January 16, trader Moses, who claimed to be "Polymarket's 515th ranked trader for 2025," posted questioning the account data of trader ascetic, saying, "Have you ever wondered why his account balance was $3000 in the first post? The answer is simple: he was running a large 'witch farm.' He didn't start from $12 but from hundreds of accounts, each investing $10 to $20. Once one of the accounts reached $2900, he started sharing information. Since then, he made seven trades, all winning.

But please note that he bet the entire balance each time. A real trader wouldn't do that. He was just chasing fame, using any means to achieve his goal.

As he failed to get enough volume, he even seemed to use other accounts for fake trades to achieve the desired price.

Before blindly trusting a 'internet celebrity,' be sure to do your own research. The image attached shows some of his failed witch accounts, which earned a maximum of only $1000.

Subsequently, Moses added in the comments section that all accounts were created seven months ago and consistently participated in random markets, with all accounts starting the same challenge on the same day two months ago. The entire 'From $10 to $100,000' claim is false!

Furthermore, he posted screenshots and links to the corresponding witch accounts' profiles:

· Account One: https://polymarket.com/@brockmatthew;

· Account Two: https://polymarket.com/@wellscandice;

· Account Three: https://polymarket.com/@jbryan.

Market Prediction Scam

Although ascetic later responded in the comments section that the wallet and account mentioned by Moses were not related to them, and some members of the ZSC DAO (a community of Polymarket traders) also voiced their support, stating that Moses was a victim of a cyberattack, the connection between the content of ascetic's previous tweet and an account with a similar pattern of behavior to their Polymarket account still significantly undermines the credibility of this "8300x ROI miracle."

Some in the comments section also mentioned the difficulty in understanding why Moses would take such actions, considering that achieving "7 consecutive successful bets" is already quite impressive; however, others later pointed out that this was still a "game of bot-like widespread betting."

Of course, somewhat ironically, Moses's personal bio also includes the tagline of his "journey from $1 to $1 million," whether this is a true achievement or a personal goal remains unknown.

Compared to ascetic, whose authenticity is hard to determine, the case of the individual who profited $230,000 through price manipulation in the XRP "15-minute price prediction market" on Binance may be more worth studying for whale players.

Trader Exploits Binance Spot Market Price Reversal Prediction Market: Turns $1 Million Principal into $230,000 Profit

On January 18, Polymarket trader PredictTrader posted revealing a trading operation akin to a theatrical version of "The Wolf of Wall Street"—by harvesting trading bot liquidity, he made $233,000 in just a few hours, all without sparking widespread market attention.

This trader, named a4385, chose a particularly opportune moment to strike—it was a Saturday night, with low market liquidity and relatively modest Binance spot order book depth.

In a trade titled "XRP Price Action—January 17, 12:45-1:00 PM EST," he heavily bought the "up" side.

His counterpart was the common "retail liquidity provider" on Polymarket—various trading bots. By the 10-minute mark of the trade, XRP had dropped around 0.3% from the opening price, but he had already pushed the "up" side to 70%. Seeing a profit opportunity, the trading bots fell into the trader's pre-set "price trap" instead of trading against him, ultimately selling more "up" side chips to him.

Ultimately, the trader bought the "up" chips totaling $77,000 at 48% average price.

And just 2 minutes before the settlement of this bet, a wallet on Binance bought around $1 million worth of XRP spot, causing its price to rise by about 0.5%; a few seconds after the settlement of the betting event, this $1 million spot was rapidly sold off.

In other words, the cost of this price manipulation event was—about a 0.25% one-way trade slippage + fee.

Using a Binance VIP level 4 account (0.06%) (easily obtained) and a 0.25% two-way slippage, the total cost was about $6,200, with the actual operational cost possibly lower. By repeating the same operation multiple times, coupled with the weekend liquidity gap, the trader managed to drain funds from several bot wallets.

Some bots were promptly shut down, while others did not react quickly enough and lost all their funds—including @aleksandmoney, which lost its entire year's profit (about $160,000).

a4385 Polymarket account link: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x506bce138df20695c03cd5a59a937499fb00b0fe

At the end of the article, it is hoped that traders who bet on both sides in the prediction markets and engage in passionate battles can distinguish between fact and appearance. Sometimes, the truth is not always objective, while the standards and rules set by the platform are artificially defined.

Original Article Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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