In the Crypto+AI Leapfrogging Wave, How to Seize the Hundredfold Narrative?

By: blockbeats|2025/01/10 13:45:02
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Original Article Title: Crypto X AI Thesis (Part 1) -- We're at a "Step Function" Moment
Original Article Author: karsenthil, Lattice Fund Venture Partner
Original Article Translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: This article discusses the evolution of blockchain from the consensus layer (Bitcoin) to the execution layer (smart contracts), and now towards the application layer transition. AI is seen as the key to unlocking the future, with four major innovation directions over the next 25 years: Super Apps, SaaS-like Smart Agents, AI-native Infrastructure, and Intelligent Assets. It is predicted that these areas will drive a new wave of industry growth, including all-encompassing financial applications, dynamic intelligent assets, and AI-specific on-chain platforms, all showing tremendous potential.

The following is the original content (slightly reorganized for readability):

AI represents the next inflection point in blockchain evolution, with each era of blockchain development typically following a familiar trajectory.

1. A "step function" leap forward triggers a wave of innovation;

2. Progress gradually stabilizes, and imitators begin to flood in;

3. The next leap forward follows.

In the Crypto+AI Leapfrogging Wave, How to Seize the Hundredfold Narrative?

The first leap forward in the crypto space began with the innovation at the consensus layer: the invention of Bitcoin and Proof of Work (PoW). This wave of innovation (roughly from 2009 to 2014) propelled the total crypto market capitalization to grow over 10,000 times, surging from about $750,000 to around $7.5 billion.

The second leap forward occurred at the execution layer, with the emergence of smart contracts enabling blockchain programmability. Today, most infrastructure (L1, L2, etc.) and applications (tokens, stablecoins, DeFi, etc.) are built on this core primitive. This wave of innovation (roughly from 2014 to present) expanded the total crypto market capitalization by about 500 times, reaching around $3.5 trillion, with projects born in this wave holding a staggering 43% (about $1.5 trillion) of the total market cap.

However, progress has once again stabilized. Why? Here are my (potentially controversial) views:

Everything that can be built on smart contracts may have already been built. Even the recent trend of meme coins is just a "mash-up" of existing building blocks (such as tokens, bond curves, NFT mania), rather than a completely new invention.

Smart contracts have become the core bottleneck of user experience (UX). Cryptographic applications must interact directly with smart contracts, shifting complexity to the user. Users need to understand the contract's location, function, interaction method, and also sign transactions, pay gas fees, etc.

Fortunately, the next transformative improvement is already here—bringing innovation at the application layer through enhanced usability.

AI Will Become Cryptography's Frontend


Every new technology requires a suitable "frontend" (or user experience layer) to abstract complexity in a localized manner and integrate functionality. For example:

· Personal computers have GUI and operating systems;

· The Internet has web browsers and FAANG;

· Mobile devices have native apps and app stores.

AI will become this user experience layer in the cryptographic field, providing an order-of-magnitude better user experience for cryptographic infrastructure to promote broader adoption. The reason I hold this view is that AI can abstract the biggest user experience challenge in cryptography:

· Onboarding: Lowering the threshold for users to interact with cryptography;

· Execution: Simplifying operations that typically require multiple discrete steps, with LLM having an advantage in this aspect;

· Discovery: Helping users find suitable applications and features.

By 2030, I anticipate that 40% of the global population will have completed on-chain transactions, with over 95% of on-chain transactions being completed through AI. By then, users will be using applications based on cryptographic technology without consciously realizing that it is cryptography that drives them.

To achieve this, AI will become the "connecting organization" between the application layer and the cryptographic infrastructure, working together upward and downward in the tech stack. In the future, applications will interact directly with multiple AI agents and models, and these AI agents will aggregate on behalf of users and execute on-chain operations. Smart contracts will also evolve into forms integrated natively with AI, such as "smart tokens," providing a generative and customized experience rather than the uniform and deterministic patterns we see today.

When you look at cryptographic applications from the perspective of AI, everything becomes clear. For example, the next generation of super financial applications may leverage AI to aggregate information, make proactive recommendations, and execute DeFi operations based on the user's intent, preferences (such as security, yield, etc.), and real-time market predictions. Users won't need to understand what L1/L2 is, won't need to remember the names of protocols or assets, and won't need to know how cross-chain bridges work and other complex details.

Even more exciting, this future is just beginning to take shape.

So, who will emerge as the biggest winner?

As AI unleashes its innovative power at the application layer, the answer seems quite clear: it's all about the applications, applications, applications! (Of course, with some infrastructure play as well.) As David points out below, we're already starting to see a shift from the infrastructure cycle to the application cycle, and AI will only further accelerate this transition.

In the crypto space, there are four types of products that particularly excite me, each of which has significant asymmetric potential in its early stages:

1. Aggregators, a.k.a. Super Apps

I predict that the "FAANG of the Crypto Space" will emerge: Super apps that simplify the on-chain user experience through proxies, directly engage with users, and vertically integrate infrastructure, making applications more robust. By becoming infrastructure providers (similar to Amazon or Google), they attract developers, while demonstrating monopolistic advantages in their respective domains (e.g., search and advertising, finance, commerce, social, etc.).

Just as today's FAANG drives about 20% of the S&P 500's value, I also expect this category to follow a power-law distribution, capturing a similar proportion of the crypto market's total market cap by 2030: a conservative estimate of hundreds of billions, with an optimistic prediction reaching trillions in market opportunity.

In this field, I am particularly bullish on DeFi (or as the younger generation calls it, DeFAI) as a killer app scenario: imagine a next-generation financial super app where users can seamlessly access all on-chain financial assets, receive investment advice or insights, perform real-time sentiment analysis, and directly execute user intent. Additionally, the "Google of the Crypto Space" is equally anticipated, tackling the discovery problem of crypto applications and assets through a design similar to the "PageRank" algorithm, monetizing through advertising or innovative value flows.

The winners in this category will create unprecedented outcomes because they possess a key factor that Web2 super apps have never had: tokens. Tokens in the crypto space have proven to be an undeniable product-market fit (PMF), capable of attracting broad attention from users, investors, and believers, and occupying mindshare.

2. Agents as a Service (Agents as SaaS)

I am excited about AI agents that excel in a specific field, which can be combined through aggregators or other agents, similar to today's SaaS or financial products.

For example, a fully autonomous agent could accept liquidity and invest it in the crypto market (acting both as a top-tier high-liquidity trader and participating in the best-performing projects on Echo), all while charging lower fees than an ETF or fund. Alternatively, an agent could achieve excess returns in prediction markets or sports betting markets. Another example is a tool like aixbt that provides high-value market and investment research.

These agents will democratize market access through on-chain assets (such as dollars, real-world assets, etc.) and strategies (quantitative, venture capital, etc.), making previously inaccessible markets more reachable.

This is not limited to the financial sector alone. Imagine a world where an AI doctor, trained specifically for a patient's profile, can directly interface with insurance companies through a crypto payment system and issue low-risk prescriptions. Or, an insurance agent could find the cheapest insurance for your home. Of course, there is still a long way to go to achieve these scenarios (after all, most agents currently can't even handle basic on-chain interactions).

However, with innovations from these agents in user acquisition, value capture, and pricing mechanisms (e.g., users needing to hold 100 AIXBT to access premium services), the opportunities will be endless. As these developments unfold, I also anticipate significant opportunities in the agent market, akin to "the eBay or OpenSea of this world."

3. AI-native Infrastructure

The next-generation critical infrastructure opportunity (e.g., L1) will no longer focus on speed or cost but will instead provide an order-of-magnitude improvement in user experience. By leveraging AI agents and AI-powered smart contracts at its core, the new infrastructure will natively support efficient on-chain reasoning, verifiable off-chain reasoning (leveraging trusted execution environments [TEEs]), semi-autonomous AI agents supporting smart accounts (with built-in security limits), computation/training access, and bidirectional agent-value flow capabilities, empowering collaborative group efforts and the development of agentomics.

Similar to the current era of dApps, many agents from the aforementioned category 2 (especially long-tail agents) will deploy on these new L1s instead of managing their own infrastructure, thereby benefiting from the proximity and composability network effects. I am also excited about reimagining value capture mechanisms, MEV, and consensus mechanisms for this new generation of L1s (e.g., can agents become validators?).

This does not mean I am bearish on Ethereum, Solana, or other leading L1/L2 ecosystems. These ecosystems can and will introduce many of these features into their tech stacks over the next few years. However, I believe that L1s born in this era, more aligned with the needs of a new generation of developers, will have tremendous growth opportunities. Projects like ai16z and Virtuals have already served as early harbingers in this space, showcasing possible future forms and their potential market size.

The story of L1 may still have some excitement to come.

4. Smart Assets

Some of the most popular applications in the crypto space today (such as stablecoins, NFTs, ERC-20/SPL tokens) are essentially deterministic, static assets. They perform well for their designed purposes, but what if users could have smart assets that strive dynamically towards specific goals (such as more holders, higher value, etc.)?

Imagine a scenario where smart contracts could invoke a reasoning model on-chain to allow assets to dynamically adjust token supply, issuance schedules, burning or staking mechanisms, or other parameters that are currently hard-coded (or require social consensus for modification). Each token could even be customized based on the holder and their preferences, providing a whole new dimension of personalization.

I speculate that the earliest experiments with these assets will emerge in the NFT and DAO space. For example, an NFT that is 100% generated in every aspect (not just its media content); or a governance token that could, based on protocol history and holder preferences, represent users in drafting proposals or voting.

As the technology matures, the big winners in this category may still be focused on financial use cases. For instance, someday in the future, Ethena's USDE stablecoin may be able to dynamically adjust its synthetic dollar strategy based on macroeconomic conditions.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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