Glassnode: How Has the Landscape of Cryptocurrency Investors Shifted?

By: blockbeats|2025/02/07 16:00:03
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Original Title: A New Mindset
Original Source: Glassnode
Original Translation: Baishui, Golden Finance

Abstract

· Bitcoin has evolved into a global asset with high liquidity, available around the clock. This creates conditions for investors to speculate, trade, and express macroeconomic views when traditional markets are closed.

· Bitcoin continues to prove itself as an emerging store of value asset, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $850 billion. It also serves as a medium of exchange asset, processing nearly $9 billion in transactions daily.

· Several indicators of new demand remain high, but they are far below the peaks of previous cycles.

· The composition of digital asset investors is also changing, with a significant increase in more mature institutional investors in the Bitcoin space. This has led to a general decrease in drawdown magnitudes, with volatility compressing over time.

Test Ground

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has evolved into a highly liquid global asset, remaining active for trading 24/7. Given that global events often occur outside traditional market trading hours, Bitcoin has become one of the few assets where investors can express views during weekends and similar times.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline as market participants reacted to the Trump administration's tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. With other markets closed, Bitcoin and other digital assets saw a steep drop followed by a recovery:

· BTC's trading price fell from $104,000 to $93,000 (-10.5%) and then rebounded to $102,000.

· ETH's trading price fell from $34,000 to $25,000 (-26.5%) and then rebounded to $28,000.

· SOL's trading price fell from $236 to $184 (-22.0%) and then rebounded to $217.

Bitcoin is now playing an increasingly important role on the world stage, with nation-states like Bhutan engaging in large-scale mining operations, El Salvador pushing for Bitcoin as legal tender, and the U.S. government considering the potential of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

Bitcoin has recently surpassed the important psychological barrier of $100,000 for several weeks in a row, a feat many critics deemed impossible.

Glassnode: How Has the Landscape of Cryptocurrency Investors Shifted?

Despite traditional investors' increasing acceptance of Bitcoin, for many, Bitcoin remains a controversial and polarizing topic, often based on dubious claims of lacking intrinsic value or utility.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin has solidified its position as one of the world's largest assets, with a market capitalization of $2 trillion, ranking as the seventh-largest asset globally. It is worth noting that this places Bitcoin above silver ($1.8 trillion), Saudi Aramco ($1.8 trillion), and Meta ($1.7 trillion), making it increasingly hard to ignore.

As the asset's valuation and weight reach such a significant scale, its inertia also increases. As a result, Bitcoin now requires a significant influx of new capital to sustain its market capitalization growth. To explore this idea, we can utilize the realized cap metric, which measures the cumulative net inflow of capital into a digital asset.

If we take the cycle low point set in November 2022 as a reference, when the realized cap was $400 billion, Bitcoin has since absorbed approximately +$450 billion of additional capital inflows, more than doubling its realized cap.

This reflects that the total value stored in Bitcoin is about $850 billion, with each token's pricing based on its last on-chain transaction price.

While BTC is commonly seen as an emerging store of value asset, the Bitcoin network also serves as a decentralized rail for BTC as a medium of exchange. The combination of nodes and miners allows for cross-border settlement payments by any individual or entity without the need for interaction with a third-party intermediary.

When utilizing Glassnode's entity-adjusted heuristic approach to filter transactions, over the past 365 days, the Bitcoin network has processed an average of $8.7 billion per day, with a total value transferred in the past year reaching $3.2 trillion.

The actual settlement value and economic activity of the Bitcoin network provide empirical evidence that Bitcoin possesses both "value" and "utility," challenging critics' assumption that Bitcoin lacks both value and utility.

Relative Dominance

After determining the growing importance of Bitcoin as a macro asset, we can shift our focus internally and analyze its relative dominance within the broader digital asset ecosystem.

Since the FTX collapse in November 2022, Bitcoin's dominance has been on a continuous upward trend, rising from 38% to 59%. This indicates that in the digital asset space, Bitcoin's net rotation and value accumulation take precedence over other assets.

This may partly be attributed to the broader access provided by the U.S. spot ETF for institutional capital. As a scarce asset, Bitcoin's core narrative is also clearer, with many holding Bitcoin as a hedge against global fiat currency devaluation.

When comparing the market capitalizations of Bitcoin and various altcoins (excluding Ethereum and stablecoins), we can see that the valuation gap is continuously widening. Anchoring ourselves back to the low point of 2022, we can compare the growth in market capitalization.

· Bitcoin Market Cap: $363.0 billion > $1.93 trillion (5.3x)

· Altcoin Market Cap: $190.0 billion > $892.0 billion (4.7x)

While there is a difference in the valuation scale between Bitcoin and altcoins, the correlation between the two remains strong. This suggests that the reason for this difference is not the growth rate between the two but rather the significant disparity in capital entering Bitcoin versus the altcoin space.

Although Bitcoin continues to receive the majority of capital from investors, it can be expected that Bitcoin's dominance will continue to rise (the reversal of this indicator is a signal of capital rotating in the other direction).

Where is the New Demand?

With BTC price breaking the $100,000 barrier, it is expected that Bitcoin's exposure will increase significantly. We can assess this by evaluating the percentage of network wealth held by tokens bought just under 3 months ago. The chart below shows the changes in this metric over the 12 months following a new cyclical ATH.

While the new demand in this cycle is significant, the wealth held by 3-month-old tokens is much lower compared to previous cycles. This indicates that the scale of new demand inflow is not the same, appearing to be more sporadic and peak-oriented rather than sustained.

Interestingly, all previous cycles have ended approximately a year after the first ATH breakout, highlighting the atypical nature of our current cycle, which saw its first new ATH in March 2024.

If we separate out the transfer volume of small wallets (less than $10,000) and compare it to the peak levels in 2021, we can see a significant decline. Despite a substantial increase in overall settlement volume this cycle and a significant rise in Bitcoin's price, this trend persists.

This suggests that the new demand for BTC is primarily driven by large entities rather than small retail entities.

We can also utilize other datasets to support our argument. Despite many bullish factors surrounding the asset, search intensity has not reached the frenzied levels seen during the 2021 bull market.

Evolution of the Investor Base

While the structure of the Bitcoin protocol and consensus code is fundamentally fixed, the market's response to it is an evolving and dynamic process. The regulatory environment continues to change, and new financial instruments such as derivatives and ETF products continue to develop around it. As the Bitcoin ecosystem evolves, the composition of Bitcoin investors also continues to change, most notably in this cycle.

When comparing the balance changes of smaller entities (holding <10 BTC), we observe a noticeable shift in behavior patterns in recent years.

During the bull markets of 2013 and 2017, we could identify periods of significant token accumulation from these groups, often synonymous with "exuberant top buying." This pattern seems to have broken in this cycle, with smaller entities engaging in more intense accumulation during corrections and pullbacks, then transitioning to distribution as the market rebounds to new highs.

This suggests that even within those typically seen as retail investor groups, there exists a more mature and well-educated cohort of investors.

The launch of a US Spot Bitcoin ETF has also provided institutional investors with a new investment channel, offering them a regulated Bitcoin investment opportunity. This has facilitated potential institutional capital inflows, with the ETF seeing net inflows of over $40 billion and a total AUM surpassing $120 billion in the 12 months since its launch.

By delving into the IBIT Investor Capital Table (as described by analyst TXMC), we can clearly see signs of increasing institutional investor demand. This further demonstrates that Bitcoin is attracting a more mature investor base.

Controlled Downtrend

One of the many advantages of on-chain data is that it can help us analyze investor behavior during periods of stress, such as pullbacks and downturns.

When evaluating the actual loss magnitude locked in during a bull market, our current cycle remains the most conservative. The only significant event where Bitcoin holders suffered substantial losses was the yen carry trade unwinding on August 5th. Apart from this, the loss magnitude remains relatively small, indicating that the investor base is more patient, resilient, and less price-sensitive.

This is in stark contrast to the previous cycle structure, where the 2015-2018 period featured multiple minor sell-off periods. The 2019-2022 period has been more turbulent, experiencing several deep and severe sell-off events, such as the mid-2019 PlusToken unwinding, the March 2020 COVID-19 sell-off, and the mid-2021 large-scale miner migration.

Bitcoin's volatility regime is also in a state of flux, with the actual volatility at historic lows during the bull market. The actual volatility over a three-month rolling window in this cycle is typically below 50%, whereas in the previous two bull markets, the actual volatility often exceeded 80% to 100%.

This reduction in volatility, coupled with a relatively composed investor base, manifests in a more stable price structure. So far, the 2023-2025 cycle has been essentially a series of staircase-like price movements (rises followed by consolidation periods).

We have also seen more controlled retracement scenarios, with the current cycle experiencing the shallowest average retracement from local highs of all cycles to date.

Summary

Bitcoin continues to solidify its position as a global macro asset. It remains available for trading, allowing investors to express their market views at any time of the day, while its deep liquidity enables investors to execute large-scale transactions.

Addressing criticisms regarding Bitcoin's role as a store of value and medium of exchange, the network has attracted over $850 billion in net capital inflows and processes nearly $9 billion in transaction volume daily. These figures largely dispel doubts about these claims.

Recent regulatory changes in the digital asset ecosystem have prompted a shift in investor composition, leading to an increasing presence of mature institutional investors in the Bitcoin market. This cohort of investors, characterized by greater patience, resilience, and less price sensitivity, helps reduce drawdowns and lower volatility.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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