During FTX's Solvent Hour, which coins will bear the brunt of massive sell pressure?

By: blockbeats|2025/01/13 11:15:03
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Original Article Title: "During FTX Repayment, Which Coins Need to Endure Massive Dumping Pressure?"
Original Article Author: jk, Odaily Planet Daily

During FTX's Solvent Hour, which coins will bear the brunt of massive sell pressure?

After the collapse of FTX in 2022, the story of this exchange has shifted from brilliance to the complexity of repayment and liquidation. Two years later, FTX's compensation plan has gradually become clear but has brought massive dumping pressure to some coins.

In this article, Odaily Planet Daily will take readers back to review FTX's progress in repaying debts, the tokens subjected to dumping pressure, and how once eye-catching innovative products have influenced the future of the crypto industry.

FTX's Repayment Plan and Timeline

In May 2024, the Associated Press reported that FTX had provided explicit compensation amount data in court filings at the time. According to this court filing, FTX owes creditors around $11.2 billion, while the exchange estimates funds available for distribution to creditors to be between $14.5 billion and $16.3 billion.

The filing indicates that after full payment of claims, the plan also stipulates the payment of additional interest to creditors as long as funds remain surplus. The interest rate for most creditors is 9%.

However, all this compensation will be settled in dollars at the cryptocurrency's price at the time of FTX's collapse. Specifically, when FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in November 2022, the price of Bitcoin was $16,080. This is both good and bad—

The bad part is that investors held digital assets at the time but are now receiving compensation in USD. If an investor held 1 Bitcoin at the time, which has now appreciated about 6 times, this appreciation is not factored into the compensation. Investors will only receive $16,080 plus two years of interest as compensation.

On the other hand, if not for the two years of the crypto bull market, FTX's treasury might not have had so much money to pay back all customers—being able to recover the original amount at that time is still quite comforting.

According to the plan submitted to the Delaware Bankruptcy Court, customers and creditors with claims of $50,000 or less will receive approximately 118% of the compensation. This group represents 98% of FTX's customers.

And in 24 August, this event had a small update: Odaily previously reported that FTX and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have agreed to a $12.7 billion settlement. The CFTC has agreed that as long as FTX complies with the restructuring plan, the CFTC will not seek any penalties. Therefore, FTX will pay up to $12.7 billion in restitution to creditors, depending on the available funds. This is equivalent to a government seal on the settlement agreement, ensuring that government lawsuits against FTX will not reduce the funds available to customers. Based on the estimated funds at that time, FTX can still complete full restitution, with some funds remaining.

Odaily previously reported that a judge approved FTX's sale of a $1 billion stake in the AI startup Anthropic and plans to pay $200 million in priority tax payments to the IRS and $685 million in secondary tax credit claims FTX argued that the amount it owed was far less than the $24 billion claimed by the IRS. These are all part of FTX's restitution journey.

So, how is FTX's restitution progressing now? FTX's restitution requires coin sales, but how will this selling pressure affect the market, and will some tokens face massive sell-offs? Let's take a look together.

What's in FTX's Wallet Now?

FTX's current wallet and holdings are publicly available on Arkham. As of the time of writing this article, FTX's on-chain addresses hold a total of $14.75 billion in assets, with the largest holding in FTT, valued at approximately $6.8 billion.

Aside from FTT, here are 20 other assets with holdings over a million dollars each:

· FTT: $680.79M

· OXY: $356.56M

· MAPS: $147.10M

· MEDIA: $131.76M

· FIDA: $55.31M

· RAY: $21.69M

· BOBA: $17.86M

· BRZ: $14.58M

· DRIFT: $10.15M

· JUP: $6.66M

· JTO: $6.25M

· USDC: $3.31M

· SOL: $ 3.14 M

· RENDER: $ 2.77 M

· ASD: $ 2.76 M

· SRM: $ 2.72 M

· KMNO: $ 2.67 M

· MPLX: $ 2.65 M

· AMPL: $ 1.67 M

· STG: $ 1.18 M

So, which tokens need extra attention due to selling pressure? According to Coingecko data, Odaily has compiled the following tokens for you:

· FTT: Currently, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of only $8.7 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $18 million, while FTX's holdings reach $6.8 billion. Even with market makers absorbing the pressure, it's difficult to find buying pressure to support the current price.

· OXY: Currently, with a 24-hour trading volume of only $3,000 and an FDV of around $3.65 billion. FTX's holdings amount to $3.56 billion, indicating that due to the selling pressure outlook, this token has little trading volume. However, apart from DEX, this token is only listed on Kraken, so it doesn't have much relevance to most traders.

· MAPS: Currently, with an FDV of $185 million, FTX's holdings reach $147 million, and the 24-hour trading volume is similarly bleak at only $130,000.

· MEDIA: Currently, the FDV on Coingecko is $14.23 million, and FTX's holdings have reached $13.1 million.

· FIDA: The current FDV is $216 million, FTX's holdings are $55.31 million. With proper execution, shorts may have room to maneuver. The current 24-hour trading volume is $15.51 million.

· BOBA: The current FDV is $94.67 million, with a market cap of $81.05 million, while FTX's holdings amount to $17.86 million. The 24-hour trading volume is $1.62 million.

· SRM: Currently with a market cap of $11.37 million, 24-hour trading volume of $490,000, and FTX holdings of $2.72 million.

· MPLX: Currently with a market cap of $185 million, 24-hour trading volume of $1.36 million, and FTX holdings of $2.65 million.

· AMPL: Currently with a market cap of $150 million, 24-hour trading volume of $830,000, and FTX holdings of $1.67 million.

Smaller impact tokens:

· RAY: Raydium currently has a market cap of $1.3 billion, 24-hour trading volume of $94.83 million, and FTX holdings of $21.69 million. If the market maker aims to sell steadily and executes the strategy properly, significant price drops are not expected.

· DRIFT: Currently with a market cap of $310 million, 24-hour trading volume of $29.01 million, FTX holdings of $10.15 million, fully capable of absorbing.

· ASD: Currently with a market cap of $32.02 million, 24-hour trading volume of $1.24 million, FTX holdings of $2.76 million.

· KMNO: Currently with a market cap of $146 million, 24-hour trading volume of $19.92 million, FTX holdings of $2.67 million.

Other tokens, such as Solana with a very high circulation volume (reaching a 24-hour trading volume of $4 billion, with FTX currently holding only $3.14 million), Jupiter, Jito, Render, Stargate, and fully supported stablecoins like USDC and BRZ, do not require any worry.

FTX Holdings. Source: Arkham

At the time of posting, FTX is still conducting continuous sell-offs, as seen on Arkham, FTX's liquidation address is transferring the held tokens to Binance and Gate at a frequency of several transactions per day, with each transfer not being significant, ranging from $50,000 to $5 million based on whether the token has a large holding. It is currently unclear if this sell-off behavior has any market maker involvement behind it, but this time, FTX did not conduct a one-time massive sell-off of all held tokens like the German government, leading to a sharp price drop.

FTX's Feature Products

Back in the day, FTX was the go-to exchange for traders and institutions, known for its support of high-frequency trading. This also led to a significant level of technological spillover effects, and FTX developed many unique trading products for retail traders. After FTX's demise, some of these products were absorbed by other exchanges, while some have not seen any follow-up to this day.

For example, the leverage tokens that were once popular on FTX were very retail-friendly:

Leverage tokens can provide investors with double-leverage exposure to assets without the need for complicated operations or direct exposure to the liquidation risk of leveraged trading. Most investors are familiar with futures trading/leverage trading, which requires investors to collateralize assets and monitor market fluctuations to avoid liquidation. However, the leverage tokens introduced by FTX, such as 3x Long Bitcoin and 3x Short Ethereum, greatly simplified this process. Users could buy and sell leverage tokens just like trading regular spot tokens, without the need to open a separate margin account or post collateral. Furthermore, leverage tokens, through a daily rebalancing mechanism, locked the risk of market fluctuations within a daily range, helping users avoid the liquidation risk that may arise from significant market volatility.

For retail investors, the emergence of leverage tokens reduced the barrier to entry for leveraged trading. They could achieve multiple market gains with a small capital cost and this product was quite popular in the former FTX market. Now, this product has been absorbed by exchanges like KuCoin and has been applied to popular tokens like Bitcoin.

A three times short Bitcoin product on KuCoin. Source: KuCoin

Another product of FTX, tokenized US stock products, has yet to see a large-scale product offering similar services. FTX once offered tokenized products of several US companies, including Alibaba and Coinbase; the launch of these tokenized US stock products allowed global investors to participate in the US stock market without needing to open a US securities account. FTX, through partnerships with regulated entities and custodians, tokenized these stock assets to circulate on the blockchain. These tokens are pegged 1:1 to the underlying stocks, and investors can directly trade tokenized US stocks on the FTX platform.

This product addresses several pain points of the traditional stock market. For example, investors are no longer limited by region or regulation, eliminating the need to open a cumbersome securities account; meanwhile, tokenized products support 24/7 trading, unlike the traditional stock market, which has fixed opening and closing hours.

So far, protocols similar to Backed can now offer non-U.S. users tokenized U.S. stock products, including stocks like the recently popular Nvidia. However, U.S. users still lack a platform where they can purchase tokenized U.S. stocks.

Tokenized U.S. stocks offered by Backed. Source: Backed Official Website

Odaily previously reported that Base developer Jesse Pollak stated in a post on the X platform that Coinbase is considering offering tokenized shares of its stock to its U.S. users on its Ethereum Layer 2 network Base. Pollak mentioned that non-U.S. users have already been able to obtain tokenized COIN stock through protocols like Backed (a tokenized RWA platform), and implementing COIN on Base is "something we are researching in the new year," with Pollak adding that ultimately, "every asset in the world will be implemented on Base." Jesse Pollak further commented that Coinbase has "no specific plans at the moment."

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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