Crypto Wipes $100 Billion Amid US Government Shutdown Fears

By: crypto insight|2026/01/27 00:00:03
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Key Takeaways

  • The crypto market recently experienced a significant loss of approximately $100 billion, driven by fears of a potential US government shutdown.
  • Senate Democrats are threatening to block a funding bill, particularly opposing appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security, contributing to market anxiety.
  • Historical patterns show that during governmental shutdowns, crypto prices tend to fall, which heightens current investor concerns.
  • Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket see an increased likelihood of a shutdown, with odds rising dramatically over a recent weekend.
  • The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including potential tariff hikes and military deployments by the US, further exacerbate market instability.

WEEX Crypto News, 2026-01-26 14:04:30

The cryptocurrency market witnessed a drastic decrement as roughly $100 billion evaporated from its valuation within a mere span of hours. This steep decline, noticed over the late hours of Sunday, can be attributed to mounting fears of a looming US government shutdown, which spurred a significant number of traders into a frenzied sell-off. The discomfort stems majorly from Capitol Hill, where Senate Democrats have hinted at halting a funding bill should it include provisions for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

The root of this discontent was a tragic incident involving federal agents and the death of a man in Minneapolis, leading to public outcry against the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). In light of this, Democrats, led by figures such as Senate Democrat Leader Chuck Schumer, have called for reforms within the spending bill tied to the DHS. Schumer firmly stated that without amendments, they will not greenlight the appropriations bill, essentially putting a roadblock on the path to funding. Schumer criticized the Republicans for failing to curb what he described as “abuses of ICE,” indicating a broader political impasse.

Market Impact and Community Sentiment

The ramifications of this political standoff were severe on the cryptocurrency markets. Data from TradingView indicates that the overall market cap plummeted from $2.97 trillion to $2.87 trillion in just over six hours, a clear indicator of the rapidity and severity of the downturn. Bitcoin (BTC) itself saw a notable fall, diminishing by 3.4% within the last 24 hours at the time of report—a significant movement for the leading digital currency.

But Bitcoin was not the only casualty. Altcoins, a term that references all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, endured even harsher hits. Ether (ETH), for example, an emblematic token of the altcoin market, descended dramatically by 5.3% on the same day. Additionally, the turbulence in the crypto sphere led to the liquidation of leveraged cryptocurrency positions worth over $360 million, with a staggering $324 million comprising long positions. These figures, sourced from cryptocurrency exchange Gate’s data, underscore the magnitude of market nerves and the subsequent shakeout.

Political and Economic Underpinnings

The prospect of a government shutdown seems increasingly likely, as mirrored by the rising odds in prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms reflect the collective sentiment and expectations of market participants. The probability calculation of a shutdown by January 31, 2026, leaped from below 10% to 78.6% over the previous weekend on Kalshi, with Polymarket expressing similar shifts to 80%. This drastic change accentuates the growing anticipation of political discord impacting financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Moreover, external factors are adding another layer of complexity. The unpredictable geopolitical landscape, exemplified by US President Donald Trump’s threats to impose steep tariffs on Canadian imports—should Canada finalize an agreement with China—is adding fuel to the fire. Intriguingly, such tariff escalations were previously implicated in the October 10 crypto market crash a few years back, when Trump’s prior announcements rocked both tech and financial sectors. This context only exacerbates contemporary fears since investors may be speculatively recalling those unrestful times.

Additionally, the US military’s maneuvers, such as the recent deployment of warships to the Middle East amidst escalating tensions with Iran, highlight growing international pressure points that could provoke further market reactions. Such movements can potentially scare investors across various sectors, as such geopolitical issues have historically coincided with financial market volatility.

Learning from Past Shutdowns

The crypto community remains aware of the tangible impacts felt during former US government shutdowns. Looking back, the record 43-day shutdown from October 1 to November 12 saw Bitcoin’s valuation fall drastically from an all-time high of $126,080 to below $100,000. This drop was initially exacerbated by political infighting in Washington, compounded by October’s market crash catalyzed by tariff threats between the US and China.

Such historical insights are invaluable, as they provide a semblance of what might occur during current predicaments. Reflecting on the past, it’s not merely government discord or isolated macroeconomic events that drive crypto valuations; rather, the interplay of multiple crises concurrently influences market dynamics, influencing investor behavior and price trends.

The Current Sentiment and Future Outlook

Amid these developments, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a popular metric that assesses market sentiment towards Bitcoin and the broader crypto space, saw a five-point decline. This decrease to 20 out of a possible 100 represents an entrenched “extreme fear” status, stubbornly persistent for six successive days. Such metrics are integral, as they crystallize the psychological state of the market, offering a mirror to ongoing uncertainties and their perceived impact.

One paradox observed is the robust performance of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, which consistently outperformed Bitcoin since mid-October. This suggests a prevailing preference among investors for historically stable assets amidst global turmoil, underscoring a potential reallocation of capital from digital to tangible assets during heightened uncertainty.

Looking forward, the recent flux in cryptocurrency markets, driven by a chorus of political, economic, and geopolitical cues, demands close observation. Investors and traders would do well to stay informed, keeping abreast of not only domestic legislative developments but also international relations that might further influence market trajectories. The pressing need for steady communication and strategic planning becomes paramount for mitigating risk and capitalizing on market opportunities as they unfold.

Embracing Change with Caution

As we navigate these turbulent waters, platforms like WEEX continue to provide a crucial service, offering insights and secure trading environments necessary for navigating such volatile contexts. It is in these moments of uncertainty that having robust strategic frameworks and reliable partners like WEEX becomes entirely beneficial, underscoring the necessity for platforms to maintain reliability and trustworthiness.

While predictions of what comes next can be daunting, the crypto narrative remains dynamic, continually shaped by an array of influences whether geopolitical, economic, or technological. Thus, while today’s headlines speak of loss and uncertainty, opportunities often emerge from the depths of such challenges, allowing for new growth pathways in the ever-evolving crypto landscape.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

How do government shutdowns typically affect the cryptocurrency market?

Government shutdowns often introduce uncertainty into financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors may retreat to safeguard assets due to concerns about the stability and direction of macroeconomic policies, leading to a downturn in crypto prices as observed in past shutdowns.

Why do Senate Democrats oppose funding for the Department of Homeland Security?

The opposition stems from concerns over the Department of Homeland Security funding, which covers divisions like Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Recent incidents, such as controversies around ICE’s operations, have provoked calls for reform, causing Democrats to resist funding without significant changes.

What role do prediction markets play in assessing shutdown risks?

Prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, harness collective insights by allowing participants to predict political outcomes. These platforms serve as a barometer for investor sentiment, reflecting probable outcomes concerning legislative actions, thus useful for anticipating market impacts.

Why is there more focus on gold compared to Bitcoin during uncertainties?

In times of geopolitical or macroeconomic uncertainty, gold is often seen as a safe-haven investment due to its historical stability. Investors may prefer gold over more volatile assets like Bitcoin during such periods, which may partially explain gold’s recent outperformance compared to cryptocurrencies.

What strategies should crypto investors consider during geopolitical turmoil?

Investors should maintain diversified portfolios, avoid over-leveraging positions, and stay informed on both macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical events. Using reliable trading platforms such as WEEX and maintaining a long-term investment perspective can also help mitigate risks linked to short-term market fluctuations.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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