Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Rebounds 13% as Analysts See Cautious Return of Risk Appetite

By: crypto insight|2026/01/19 17:30:00
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Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has rebounded by 13% since the beginning of the year, indicating a tentative resurgence in market participation.
  • The rise follows a significant deleveraging period from October to December, which reduced Bitcoin derivatives exposure amid a broad market downturn.
  • Analysts observe that, although the recovery in futures OI is modest, it suggests a cautious return of risk appetite among investors.
  • Bitcoin options OI has recently surpassed futures OI, highlighting a shift in market dynamics towards more sophisticated trading and hedging strategies.

WEEX Crypto News, 2026-01-19 08:33:01

The landscape of Bitcoin futures is witnessing a nuanced transformation, as recent data suggests a flicker of renewed interest among traders and investors. Following a tumultuous final quarter characterized by notable deleveraging and a substantial reduction in Bitcoin derivatives exposure, Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has shown an encouraging 13% recovery from the start of the year. This subtle yet promising uptick is prompting analysts to speculate about a return, albeit cautious, of risk appetite in the ever-volatile crypto markets.

Understanding the Recovery of Bitcoin Futures OI

To truly grasp the implications of this revived interest in Bitcoin futures, one must delve into the numbers that depict this shifting scenario. At the onset of the year, Bitcoin futures OI, which measures participation in derivative markets, began gaining momentum. This resurgence follows a stark deleveraging phase lasting from October to December. During this period, Bitcoin derivatives exposure plummeted as the market adjusted to a significant correction, reflecting a collective drive towards risk reduction. This trend is highlighted by a considerable contraction in Bitcoin futures OI, which dropped 17.5%, descending from 381,000 BTC to 314,000 BTC over three months. This decline coincided with an acute 36% price correction that commenced in early October—a period signifying a pullback from leveraged positions.

However, according to insights from CryptoQuant analyst “Darkfost,” the recent recovery phase suggests that a rebound might be underway. Data from Coinglass substantiates this perspective, showing a rise from an eight-month low of $54 billion on January 1st to over $61 billion by January 19th. This upward trajectory also marked an eight-week high of $66 billion on January 15th. The subtle recovery in Bitcoin futures OI is, therefore, being interpreted as a harbinger of a gradual re-entry of risk appetite into the market.

The Dynamics of Open Interest and Market Confidence

In the realm of crypto derivatives, open interest (OI) is a crucial metric. It reflects the number or notional value of outstanding crypto derivatives contracts—essentially an indicator of active bets that have yet to be settled. Rising OI typically signals an influx of new traders entering leveraged positions, which hints at growing confidence and willingness to undertake risk. Conversely, a downward trend in OI points towards deleveraging, as traders retract and reduce their exposure.

The latest increase in futures OI, while moderate, stands as an indicator of cautious optimism. Traders appear to be tentatively testing the waters, perhaps buoyed by a recalibrated risk assessment in light of recent market shifts. This scenario must be meticulously considered, especially in relation to historical patterns where significant deleveraging periods have frequently marked the culmination of market bottoms. Such phases effectively reset market conditions and lay more robust foundations for prospective bullish recovery periods.

Bitcoin Options: A Growing Player in the Crypto Derivatives Arena

As the focus remains on Bitcoin futures, an intriguing development in the wider derivatives landscape looms large: the rising prominence of Bitcoin options. Over recent weeks, it was observed that Bitcoin options OI surpassed that of futures OI, signifying a discernible evolution in market behavior. According to Nic Puckrin, Co-founder and CEO of Coin Bureau, this shift underscores a notable preference for options—a derivative that provides the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell at a predefined strike price. The allure of options lies in their ability to mitigate volatility without rendering traders vulnerable to forced liquidations.

Options OI has now peaked, with aggregate figures across exchanges climbing to $75 billion, compared to futures OI’s $61 billion in notional value. This indicates a growing sophistication among market participants who are increasingly resorting to options contracts as a means of hedging or establishing calculated positions that dictate the course of price movements. As Puckrin notes, this isn’t merely a case of placing directional bets; it is an evolving strategy that incorporates hedging and expiry mechanics, painting a complex picture of market sentiment.

A Confluence of Factors: Futures and Options in Perspective

While the universe of Bitcoin derivatives continues to expand and diversify, the interplay between futures and options becomes ever more apparent. At present, options OI is notably concentrated at the $100,000 strike price, with a substantial $2 billion staked on Deribit—one of the most prominent derivatives exchanges. This concentration highlights a bullish sentiment, albeit a speculative one, regarding Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

Moreover, the rise in options OI signals a diversification in trading strategies beyond mere speculation. It points towards a matured approach where traders seek sophisticated instruments that offer flexibility and the ability to capitalize on market nuances without over-exposing themselves to risk. The rise of Bitcoin options OI not only mirrors market confidence but also demonstrates an appetite for varied risk management approaches.

The Role of Deleveraging in Market Health

The recent patterns of deleveraging observed in Bitcoin futures also play a pivotal role in shaping the future landscape of crypto markets. Far from being a negative influence, deleveraging often serves as a buffering mechanism. It absorbs the shocks generated by market corrections, facilitating necessary adjustments and reducing systemic risk. Deleveraging serves a dual purpose: it aids in resetting overly speculative market dynamics while positioning the market for sustainable growth.

Zooming out, Bitcoin futures OI remains 33% short of its all-time high of $92 billion seen in early October. While this may seem a setback, it concurrently propels the market towards healthier environments. Analysts have posited this retracement as a “deleveraging signal,” fundamental to identifying viable market bottoms and forming a more resilient basis for a potential bullish trajectory moving forward.

The Future of Bitcoin Derivatives: An Outlook

Given the evolving scenario, Bitcoin derivatives markets present a unique amalgamation of opportunities and challenges. As traders gradually re-engage with the futures landscape, the concurrent rise of options trading outlines a more sophisticated, strategically adaptive market climate. This dual approach not only reveals an inherent vitality and robustness in the market but also delineates an intricate, dynamic framework that continues to fascinate investors, analysts, and enthusiasts alike.

FAQ

What is Bitcoin futures open interest?

Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) refers to the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not yet been settled. It serves as a gauge of market participation and provides insight into the total level of activity and confidence among investors in Bitcoin futures markets.

Why did Bitcoin futures OI decline in Q4 of the previous year?

The decline in Bitcoin futures OI during the fourth quarter was largely attributed to a massive deleveraging phase. This involved the unwinding of leveraged positions as the market underwent a broad correction, leading to reduced exposure to Bitcoin derivatives among traders.

How does the rise in futures OI reflect market sentiment?

An increase in futures OI is generally indicative of renewed trader interest and growing confidence in market prospects. It suggests that traders are willing to take on leveraged positions, signaling a return of risk appetite within the industry.

What distinguishes Bitcoin options from futures?

Bitcoin options grant traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell Bitcoin at a specific strike price, thereby facilitating hedging strategies without exposure to forced liquidations associated with futures contracts. Futures, on the other hand, obligate traders to transact at a predetermined price, potentially resulting in liquidation if the market moves unfavorably.

How does deleveraging impact Bitcoin markets?

Deleveraging reduces excessive risk and speculation by encouraging the unwinding of leveraged positions. While it can lead to short-term price declines, it effectively stabilizes the market, laying the groundwork for longer-term recovery and sustainable growth by fostering healthier market dynamics.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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